domingo, 15 de noviembre de 2015

THE MATH SAYS...

Image description    Carolyn's Corner


Eight down, eight to go.  The math says it is mid-season.  Some say, "Oh, #*&$%!" Some say, "OMG!"  The conventional wisdom says it is time to take stock of the 2015 NFL teams.  

But, at this point, rather than taking a shot at answers (well, really more like opinions, right?) about which team is where now and where it appears it will end up-- perhaps just asking the questions and looking at the facts is more prudent.  Because as we all know, “On any given Sunday…” 

To that end, this is a compilation of 8 key questions, with short analyses.  They are generated from a variety of sources* and seem to be those resonating the most across the board.

Here we go:
courtesy of datuopinion.com
        1. What impact will Andrew Luck’s injury (abdominal muscle and lacerated kidney; out 2-6 weeks) have on the Indianapolis Colts hopes for the playoffs?  
      Maybe minimal:  They have the best back-up QB in the league in Matt Hasselbeck, say many.  The offensive line looked good against the strong Bronco defense.  They are in good shape to win their division, having already beaten the Jaguars and Texans.  
      Maybe huge:  Luck has a 90+ rating under the brand-new Offensive Coordinator, obviously not easy to replace.  Hasselbeck is not Luck.  His consistency is an issue, even with a good O line, as evidenced earlier in the season when he subbed for Luck.  He is not as good in the pocket, the brand-new Offensive Coordinator’s favored scheme.  He also has a big number of turnovers.

         2Will the New England Patriots be able to get past the season-ending injury to running back Dion Lewis?  
     Maybe yes:  It is what Bill Belichick does (well).  The Patriots have had to do it many times before and have pulled it off.  Moreover, they are as dominant now as they were in the 2007 perfect season, in a comparison of the first eight games.  
      Maybe no:  Lewis has proven to be the 3rd most valuable player on the team this season, after Brady and Gronkowski, as his stats show. His caginess in both the backfield and the secondary is a dynamic no other back for the Patriots equals this season.

           3Are the Carolina Panthers really “for real”?  
      Maybe yes:  They are undefeated at 8-0.  They are #3 in this week’s ESPN Power Rankings.  They have made it through what most will agree was the hardest part of their season, beating Seattle, Green Bay, Indianapolis, and Philadelphia.  
      Maybe no:  They used up a great amount of energy in getting through the most difficult part of their season, but they might not have the sufficient stamina to successfully go all the way.  They still do not “feel” completely “real.”

          4. Is the Denver Broncos defense as great as it seems?  
      Maybe yesNo team has scored 30 points against them. No team has passed for 300 yards.  Only three teams have accumulated over 300 total yards.  One sportswriter calls them the “boa constrictor” defense for their suffocating play.  
      Maybe no:  There is a case to make that they are the ones responsible for the Bronco’s first loss.  After 6 mindless penalties last Sunday against the Colts, they looked like somethingarrogant for thinking they are above the law, big-headed for believing the hype and thinking they can do no wrong, selfish for not thinking of the consequences of a penalty for the whole team, immature for allowing juvenile impulses to win, or just too aggressive, for which Wade Phillips has to find a way to take it down a notch.  If it goes unchecked, it puts the Broncos in a precarious position—and losers are rarely touted as great.

         5. Has the death knell sounded for the Dallas Cowboys?  
      ProbablyThey are a talented team but just too injury-ravaged to do anything more this season.  Even with Dez Bryant back and Tony Romo slated to be in week 11, it is too little, too late.  The playoffs are out of their reach, but they are a great choice for a comeback team next year.

         6. Are the Atlanta Falcons really that bad? 
      Maybe:  After the loss to San Francisco, a team with little talent and arguably one of the worst first-round QB draft picks ever in Blaine Gabbert, it is beginning to look true.  Moreover, they have lost 3 of their last 4 games.  
      Maybe not:  They started the season 5-0.

           7. Should Aaron Rodgers take the blame for the Green Bay Packers' 2 losses?  
      Maybe(at least a little):  His productivity has declined statistically in the last 4 weeks, and it seems clear that he really misses Jordy Nelson, who was his great safety valve in beating corners and getting open. Moreover, his early chemistry with James Jones has regressed. But a top-tier player like Rodgers should find a way to make it happen regardless.  
      Maybe not:  The offensive line has not been playing as a unit. Defenses have been able to keep him in the pocket and force bad throws. He is not able to scramble and make big throws/plays. And the Packer’s defensive secondary is depleted.

       8. Can the Minnesota Vikings continue to rise?  
      Probably yes (surprisingly):  They are now 6-2 (who knew?) and tied with the Packers in the NFC North—and the Vikings hold the tie-breaker! They are in the Top 10 of several different Power Rankings for the first time this season. Coach Zimmer has a history of putting together good defenses and has one this year. They had the good judgement to go with Teddy Bridgewater as QB, not Johnny Manziel, and he is progressing nicely. The whole team is gaining confidence each week, and they have been battle-tested. One sportswriter calls them the most intriguing team of the season.

And, as always, now we wait and hope, wait and pray, wait and fume, wait and weep, and wait and wait and wait some more…until that Big Day in February.
courtesy of adage.com
*Thanks to The Bleacher Report, Yardbarker, Larry Brown Sports , numberFire [sic], 120 Sports, Fox Sports, Pro Football Focus, This Given Sunday, USA Today Sports, Bring Me the News, and NFL Media.

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